“Estimates Paytm's incremental revenue from UPI MDR at Rs 2.1 billion in FY27 and Rs 4.7 billion in FY28, with adjusted EBITDA rising by Rs 1.4 billion and Rs 4.4 billion, respectively, assuming Paytm retains about 20% of the MDR pool (8 basis points effective flow-through). This is based on the government's new 40-basis-point merchant discount rate on high-value UPI transactions.”

JM Financial Analysis’s track record: 4 graded calls · 95% CI 5–70%