“Dr. V K Vijayakumar of Geojit warns that India's economy and markets will be significantly impacted if crude oil prices remain elevated above $100 a barrel for more than two weeks. He projects a 10% crude increase could reduce GDP growth by 20 bps, increase CPI by 30 bps, and widen CAD by 30-40 bps. He adds that if the conflict escalates and crude rises above $120 for many weeks, the market, which is currently underpricing this risk, will further correct from present levels.”

Dr. V K Vijayakumar’s track record: 4 graded calls · 95% CI 5–70%