“Swaminathan Aiyar expects India to weather the immediate West Asia crisis if it resolves quickly (within a week or two), but warns of unavoidable "second-order" economic pain. He anticipates headline inflation rising to 5-6% in the next two quarters, significant stress on LPG/LNG-dependent industries and downstream manufacturers due to higher input costs, and a potential widening of the fiscal deficit to 5.5% for a year. He also believes the RBI should not cut interest rates, with risks skewed towards hikes, and a prolonged conflict (3-4 months) would have a "very-very harsh" impact on the Indian economy.”